India’s economy as of early August 2025:

 Here’s a fresh snapshot of India’s economy as of early August 2025:

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📌 Key Economic Indicators

📊 Growth

GDP growth in FY 2024–25: Real GDP expanded by 6.5%, the highest among major economies. ©  

Fiscal-year 2025‑26 forecasts:

IMF projects 6.4% growth in both 2025 and 2026  

Morgan Stanley sees 5.9% in CY 2025, rising to 6.4% in CY 2026  

Fitch Ratings revised down its FY 26 forecast to 6.3%, though infrastructure and domestic demand remain supportive  

Deloitte expects GDP growth of around 6.5–6.7% in FY 26  

🏦 Inflation & Macroeconomic Health

May 2025 inflation (CPI): Just 2.82%, the lowest since February 2019  

Food inflation recorded at ~1%, easing price pressure in key staples  

Exports in FY 2024‑25 reached a record USD 824.9 bn, and debt remains manageable at around 56.1%‑81% of GDP depending on measure  

GDP per capita (nominal 2024‑25): ~₹ 2,34,859 (₹ 133,501 at 2011‑12 base)  

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⚠️ Trade Tensions & Risks

The new U.S. administration has announced a 25% tariff on Indian exports, starting August 7, 2025, with additional penalties linked to India’s trade ties with Russia  

S&P warns that if these tariffs persist beyond September, GDP growth may slip below 6.2% in FY 26  

ANZ and others estimate this tariff shock could reduce growth by 20–40 basis points, potentially dropping the FY 26 growth rate below 6% (~6.1%)  

Fitch sees direct impact limited, forecasting 6.3% growth on expectations that domestic investment and infrastructure spending will compensate  

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🌐 Strategic Developments & Outlook

The IMF underscores India’s status as the fastest‑growing major economy, upgrading its 2025–26 forecast from 6.2% to 6.4% amid improved external conditions  

Piyush Goyal has asserted that India is set to become the 3rd largest global economy soon, noting its rapid rise from 11ᵗʰ to 5ᵗʰ in the past decade  

Meanwhile, India signed a historic Free Trade Agreement with the UK on 24 July 2025, its first such deal with a European country  

In a strategic push, the government is accelerating efforts to develop a domestic critical minerals supply chain (lithium, cobalt, rare earths) to support EVs, solar, electronics, and defense  

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✅ Summary Table

Metric FY 2024–25 Actual FY 2025–26 Forecast (Outlook Range)

Real GDP Growth 6.5% ~6.3% (room for downside) to 6.7%

Inflation (CPI) ~2.8% (May 2025) Expected to stay low

Exports (£USD) USD 824.9 bn Moderate growth

Risks U.S. tariffs, global trade Domestic demand, fiscal/infrastructure support

Strategic Trends UK trade deal, critical minerals push Higher investment, resilient recovery

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India’s macroeconomic picture remains strong with healthy growth, subdued inflation, and rising exports. The primary short-term headwinds stem from emerging U.S. trade tariffs—expected to shave off a few tenths of a percent from growth. However, strong domestic demand, fiscal momentum, and new trade and mineral strategies provide offsets. The IMF, Deloitte, Morgan Stanley, and Fitch generally expect growth to remain in the 6.3–6.7% range for FY 26.

Let me know if you’d like a deeper dive into any specific area—like sectoral performance, employment trends, or monetary policy.